2010 Cincinnati Reds

Ah yes! Its almost baseball season once again! Like all fans, Cincinnati fans also believe this is their year. I'm gunna tell you why the 2010 Reds WILL win and why they WILL NOT win.

Why they WILL win:

Aaron Harang- After this season the Reds have a club option for Harang so hes basically playing for a contract. If he wants to make $12million playing baseball next year he has to impress. History tells us players somehow perform better when playing for a contract, I'm predicting Harang follows that trend. For the Reds to win Aaron will have to produce a sub 4 ERA &15wins getting back to the ace caliber pitcher he was two seasons ago. How he needs to do that? Becoming more aggressive with his pitching. From my own eye I see Harang as being too consistent with his location. EVERYTHING is low and on the corners. He needs to change the eye level of the batter.

Bronson Arroyo- Bronson is in the same boat as Harang contract wise. No way Arroyo gets $11million on he open market next year. His only hope for that kind of money is to put Cincinnati in the position where they can't refuse to bring him back. For the Redlegs to win.... sub 4 ERA and 12+ wins.

Jay Bruce- He needs to break out combining with Votto like numbers for the Reds to be a consistent offensive threat. .290 batting average and 35 Hrs is what I'm looking for.

Drew Stubbs- Drew may be the biggest X factor in my eyes. If he continues his success of last season the Reds could be serious. I'm needing a .280 avg .350OBP 25Hr 40+ stolen base season.

Scott Rolen- For the Reds to win Rolen doesn't have to put up big numbers, just decent ones along with an injury free season. They need his consistency, leadership, and experience out there. I would be happy with a .275 20Hr injury free season.

Why the Reds WILL NOT win:

Dusty Baker- Dusty is a joke. I would go more into depth but Dusty is a blog within himself. I'll save that for another day.

Injuries- Often at the end of the season the teams still left are either the ones who stayed healthy or the ones who could afford to replace their injuries.

In my eyes for Cincinnati to make a serious run they need a few breakout years combined with few injuries. But this can be said for just about EVERY team in the game....minus the Pirates of course, they are screwed.

Pitching Wins Championships

In the off season the Cincinnati Reds struck a deal sending fan favorite Josh Hamilton to the Texas Rangers in return for pitchers Edison Volquez and Danny Herrera. Hamilton was my favorite player last year and upon initially hearing that he was traded I was disappointed. His story was a good one of someone given a second chance and actually succeeding. However, I understood that this deal was good for the Reds. Hamilton is a good hitter, but pitching is the key to winning championships. I still hear a few Reds fans complaining we shouldn't have traded Hamilton and look where our offense is now. My answer to them: I have seen many recent Reds teams lead by a great offense that have gone no where while watching every championship caliber team succeed with good pitching. You can have a good team powered by a great offense but every team's goal is to win a championship and for that to take place you first need pitching. Yes, the Reds are struggling at the moment but they desperately needed another top notch ace for years to come if they are going to be serious about contending. Harang and Volquez at the top of the rotation are very dangerous.

An offense is much easier to fix than a team pitching and the Cincinnati Reds are in position to easily overhaul theirs in this remaining season and into the next. I would say the only locks for next year's every day position players are 2B-Brandon Phillips, 1B-Joey Votto, Infielder-Jeff Keppinger, and of course Outfielder-Jay Bruce. The Reds have the ability to clear up a ton of payroll if they choose to part ways with the likes of Griffey, Dunn, Patterson, Ross, Fogg, Belisle, Hatteberg, Affeldt, Weathers, and we will be done paying Stanton as well, freeing up around $25million by my calculations. Controversially I'm an Adam Dunn fan if the Reds' manager would use him right (I'll save that for another day) and like the stuff Affeldt has but the rest could go. With that money, and on top of that if Castellini is willing to dish out big bucks again, the Reds could make a bid for a right handed bat that could help this offense.

Oh' Where Have You Gone Greg Vaughn?

I think that clubhouse personalities are highly underrated not only in baseball but in all sports. If you have ever played for a team with good leader (or lack there of) you probably understand. I bring this up because I was recently day dreaming about why the Reds have had the lack of success since the '99 season.

Before the '99 season the Reds acquired Greg Vaughn with the understanding that they were only going to have him for one season then most likely not be able to afford him after that. According to many Vaughn was a great clubhouse leader and I've heard Marty say on a few occasions that Greg Vaughn was the best leader he has ever seen in a Reds uniform. The story goes that after the horrible April in '99 that Greg Vaughn called a team meeting. He basically said hes not here in Cincinnati to lose and accept losing. To stop saying "hey, don't worry about it we'll get them tomorrow" but to get them TODAY. After that meeting the Reds went on huge run and the only thing that kept them out of the playoffs was their horrible start.

In the offseason Greg Vaughn was not pursued very much by the Cincinnati Reds, especially when it became clear that Griffey Jr. wanted to come back home to Cincinnati.

Its no secret the Reds have stunk since then. "Griffey isn't outspoken but leads by example" is a bunch of crap because he loafs all over the field and continues to swing for the fences when teams shift on him, BUNT THE DAMN BALL FOR A HIT. Hes not a team player and obviously not a leader.

I really don't know what Greg Vaughn is up to or if he would be interested in somehow working with the Reds at this stage as a coach but my point is the Reds need a leader. Someone that can step in and tell Corey Patterson hes not a homerun hitter; someone that has the balls to tell Jr. he could hit .300 again by taking advantage of the shift and not letting his ego get in the way; someone that could create a winning mindset in the clubhouse.

Where Have You Gone Greg Vaughn (to the tune of Where Have You Gone, Joe DiMaggio?)

Money BALLin!

A few years back I (and many others) were fully introduced to sabermetrics via Michael Lewis' Moneyball. The main premise of Moneyball was the new age emphasis on on base percentage and slugging percentage. Another central theme of Moneyball was that stolen bases, batting average, and runs batted in were "old relics" and out of date ways to gauge a baseball player's importance.

I'm a big believer in much of what Moneyball preached (especially on base %) but did not see eye to eye with all the arguments behind the book. Discussing Moneyball could be a book or multiple books within itself so I'm just going to focus on one aspect.

In the book Billy Beane is often portrayed as believing stolen bases are overrated. To an extent I agree with Beane, but I can not totally write off stolen bases and the potential impact they can have in a single game nor over the long haul of the season. I believe 30 stolen bases is the most overrated stat today in baseball. Over a 162 game schedule is stealing 30 bases really going to make much of an impact? I believe a base stealer does not largely impact the outcome of games over the long haul till he swipes 60-70 a year, that's roughly every other game. So to me there are only a hand full of base runners in the game today that really have the ability to impact games over a 162 game schedule. Jose Reyes and Juan Pierre are the only players in the 2007 season to steal over 60 bags.

While reading Moneyball I began to think of stolen bases in a different light, not as tallying them as merely stolen bases but combining them with another stat. What actually got me thinking of this was Beane's belief in slugging % and OPS. I thought of stolen bases as a way to compliment the main idea behind slugging %. Slugging % is basically a way of valuing the amount of bases a hitter gets in each at bat. So wouldn't stealing 2nd base after hitting a single be the same thing as hitting a double in the first place while also maybe affecting the way the opposing pitcher was pitching to the current hitter at the time the base was being swiped.... so maybe even more important than initially hitting the double? Now I do not know if anyone has created a stat taking this into account (I searched briefly and didn't find any such stat but please comment if you know of one). My idea is a new Slugging % or taking it a step further and using it as a OPS formula used for taking into account a players ability to take another base after his at bat is over. I'll call it the Fabricated OPS. How to find the Fabricated OPS : add the total SBs to the total Doubles then of course you would have to subtract the number of SBs from the original amount of singles. After that you would recalculate a player's Slugging% and then OPS with the original OPS formula using the new singles & doubles figures. Here is an example with Jose Reyes' numbers from the 2007 season. Reyes stole 78 bases in the '07 season. His original 2007 OPS was .775. After using the Fabricated OPS his new OPS is: .890. I also did this with the Marlins' SS Hanley Ramirez who stole 51 bases in '07. His original OPS was .948 and his new FAB OPS was 1.027!

Please let me know what you all think of this idea or if it has already been accounted for in a similar OPS stat?

Tricks of the Trade?

Before reading any further I suggest please reading a selection of one of ESPN's finest baseball minds. Found here: http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3385066

Now that you have been enlightened by the baseball genius that is Steve Phillips let me give you my perspective on the article .......... WTF ARE YOU SERIOUS? I direct my last comment towards a few different parties: Steve Phillips, ESPN, Baseball Tonight, and the New York Mets. How was this man ever employed as a major league general manager? For those of you who don't know, Mr. Phillips is formerly the GM of the New York Mets who upon awaking from a coma ran him out of town. Then ESPN gave him a job as a baseball analyst, which doesn't surprise me with the firing of Harold Reynolds and hiring a hansom fellow like John Kruk. I could rip on ESPN's new wave of baseball personnel but I'll save that for a future blog. For now I will focus on a comical article posted on ESPN.com to which myself and a few others commenting on the article found to be completely ridiculous. Please keep Phillip's article open in another browser window so you can keep along with my rant.

Phillips' Bullet of Wisdom #1: He starts off right with "TRADE JUNIOR". However, wanting in return OF- Josh Fields or OF-Carlos Quentin is where he immediately goes wrong. The Reds are trying to make room for outfielder Jay Bruce so adding another outfielder shouldn't be a priority (besides, I'm sure you read my previous blog). Josh Fields is about as reasonable as Phillips will get in this article but Carlos Quentin is ripping it up this season. Why would Chicago trade him for an old, high priced, final year of contract, good for fly out Ken Griffey Jr.?

Phillips' Bullet of Wisdom #2: Adam Dunn to the Giants for Matt Cain? Why on earth would a Giants club trade a good young pitcher like Cain who owns a 3.80ERA and 1.25WHIP through his 4 years of major league experience, hes only going to get better. Now Phillips is somewhat realistic in asking for McGowan or SHAUN (not Shawn, as Phillips said) Marcum from Toronto, but asking for Lind to be thrown in is a little out there. Now this next idea is the reason why ESPN should reconsider employment of Mr. Phillips. "Call Cleveland, which is desperate for bats, and ask for Cliff Lee and one of these three: OF Franklin Gutiérrez and lefties Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey." ......I'm speechless. Yes, please call up Cleveland and watch them hang up on your stupid butt for asking for Cliff Lee owner of a 0.81ERA and 0.60WHIP in this young season while also asking for more! Why isn't Steve a major league general manager any more, in fact why is he even allowed to talk about baseball on tv?

Phillips' Bullet of Wisdom #3: Trade Arroyo? Arroyo has been hammered to the point this year where Dusty Baker is trying to convince him hes hurt. No one in baseball is going to want his arm especially with his pricey contract. Notice how Phillips doesn't even bother comming up with a possible deal involving him.

Phillips' Bullet of Wisdom #4: Now I could go on a huge rant about this crap but I believe MonteRSouder said it best in his comment on Steve's article, "When I was in grade school, I was a huge Reds fan and would often imagine them trading role players and crappy regulars for other teams stars and best prospects. And that was before crappy players became even less appealing by being drastically overpaid (i.e., Griffey, Dunn and Arroyo). In junior high I began to imagine trades with a greater sense of fairness because I wanted to come up with and discuss ideas that the target teams might actually consider. I was at first surprised to realize that one of the most valuable franchises in sport once employed a General Manager who by all appearances never learned this rudimentary lesson. Until I considered that the same city was the home for reign of Isaiah Thomas - who would regularly make lopsided trades just like this to fulfill other GM's most idealistic fantasies...". Thats a perfect description of the same exact way I feel about bullet #4. I really hope this was Phillips' try at comedy but I somehow doubt it.

Bullet #5 is not too crazy so I'm not really gunna comment on that but the rest of his article is out of this world. Seriously, these are the types of offers I put into Out Of The Park Baseball and the game tells me to get lost. Over the last few years I have slowly become so fed up with Steve Phillips from Baseball Tonight but this article throws my feelings towards him over the top. Please anyone and everyone comment on his article and maybe ESPN will catch on!

Outfielders are Overrated! Doesn't Bowden Know?

Its no secret that Washington National's GM Jim Bowden gets a hardon for a talented outfielder. During his time in Cincinnati he brought in talented outfielders such as Greg Vaughn, Jeffery Hammonds, Mike Cameron, Dante Bichette, Juan Encarnacion, Jose Guillen, Wily Mo Pena, Ken Griffey Jr. as well as developed Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn. The trend has continued in Washington with the aquisitions of Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Rob Mackowiak, Lastings Milledge, and Elijah Dukes. However, for all the outfielders he's brought in and continues to bring in there are NO quality arms to balance it out. Anyone that knows a darn thing about baseball knows pitching wins, without pitching you have no chance. Except for the occasional broken down vet that comes in and does alright for a season and a half the only big name pitcher Jim Bowden can claim to have brought in is Denny Neagle (who was even on the back end of his career).

There is no excuse for Bowden to continue his building strategy that obviously doesn't work. Cincinnati became fed up with his inability to pull the trigger on deals involving pitchers. So much so that even former Reds President John Allen (thought of as a joke in himself) knew enough to deal Jose Guillen for Aaron Harang. POS John Allen topped all of Bowden's deals for pitchers in one trade a few days after firing Bowden. Now you can argue, and should, that no one knew that Aaron Harang would develope into an ace. I'll even admit I thought he was crap. However, this is my point........you have to take chances on pitchers. Even if it means giving away an outfielder that ends up shoving it back in your face because outfielders are expendable! Every team in the major leagues has decent enough outfielders. The Pirates have Jason Bay; the Rangers have Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley; and Seattle has Ichiro, however how many teams really have good pitching? The answer: not many and those who do contend year in and out.

There are those Reds fans that throw a fit everytime one of the "fan favorites" is traded. Well quite simply they are expendable. Guillen, Encarnacion, Kearns, Cameron, all replaced rather easily. Of course there was an uproar when Josh Hamilton was dealt for Edison Volquez but it is obvious the Reds have found a gem in the young stud. Something that may allow them to contend for years to come. Sure many times the Reds dealt their outfielders for the likes of Ryan Dempster and Bronson Arroyo hasn't been too hot either, but sometimes you get a Aaron Harang or Edison Volquez. And as far as outfielders go......theres another waiting in the wings, Jay Bruce.